Russia-Ukraine Conflict Explained and Updates

Report by Ananya Singh and Nidhi Arora

Editor’s Note: Ananya Singh has updated this report with events that are relevant. In keeping with our editorial guidelines for children’s news, no violence or deaths have been covered in the updates.

Click here to read the daily updates

On Thursday, 25th February, the world woke up to the news of Russia announcing official military action in Ukraine. The Russian president, Mr. Vladimir Putin, announced that he had authorised (given permission for) military action in Ukraine.

At the end of the first day of fighting, Russia has taken control of Chernobyl, and some parts of Ukraine.

The Russian security forces have called the first day of military action a success. But let us start at the very beginning and understand the story.

1991: Ukraine separates from Russia

Until December 1991, Ukraine had been a part of the Soviet Union. However, in August of the same year, the Soviet Union declared that Ukraine would no longer follow its laws. This made Ukraine independent on the 24th of August 1991. The Soviet Union then dissolved on 26 December 1991. December 1991 was also when the first elections took place in Ukraine and Leonid Kravchuk assumed office as President on 1^st December 1991. 

1999 – 2020: The Eastward March of NATO

What is NATO?

According to the website of US Department of Defence:

NATO stands for North Atlantic Treaty Organization. It was formed in 1949 to provide collective security against the threat posed by the Soviet Union.

United States of America is the Founding Father of NATO. It was formed in 1949, after the establishment of UN. NATO came into existence formally on 4th April, 1949, with the signing of the Washington Treaty.

1919 – 2020: The Eastward March of NATO

In 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed and the USSR was broken into multiple smaller countries, who became sovereign nations.

This marked the end of the Cold War – a long standing diplomatic and intelligence war between the two blocks – the US on one side and the USSR on the other. Both sides tried to ensure that the other does not get superior military prowess, does not have a more advanced science program, does not create more political allies.

The world, from 1945 – 1991, was divided between the two super powers. East Germany was Communist (USSR or red bloc) and West Germany was Capitalist (USA bloc). On September 12, 1990, the German Unification Treaty was signed. After this, the Berlin wall was demolished and Germany became one country.

At the time, talks between Gorbachev, the then President of USSR, Helmut Kohl, the then Chancellor of Germany, and the United States, agreed that to protect the sovereignty of USSR, NATO should not add members of the Soviet bloc to its membership. According to the documents declassified and published by the National Security Archive, USA, the term was “Not one inch eastward’ after the unification of Germany.

This was a time of friendship. In 1991, the first North Atlantic Co-operation Council (NACC) meeting was held to bring the two blocs together and work together. While the first meeting was on, the Soviet ambassador announced the end of the USSR and that he now represented only Russia. Therefore, the existence of such an understanding between NATO and the Soviet Bloc is understandable.

We March East, and Only to the East

For about 8 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, this agreement, though verbal, was upheld.

Then, in 1999, NATO started expanding – in exactly one direction – East.

Green represents the countries that were a part of NATO in 1991. Unified Germany was agreed to be the final frontier of NATO, and not an inch eastward was promised.

In 1999, 4 East European countries were added to NATO.

In 2004, 7 more East European countries were added.

2009: Albania and Croatia were added.

What is notable is that NATO has expanded in only one direction. Members have not been added from any other geography.

Since 2018, defence spending by all these East European countries, except Estonia and Latvia, has gone up as a percentage of GDP. This means that defence spending has not just increased, it has increased at the expense of other heads of government spending.

Most of this spend is for establishing defence mechanisms that meet NATO’s standards. This standard equipment is, not surprisingly, made by American manufacturers only.

In short, these East European countries have been providing a big market to American weapon manufacturers.

This report provides insights into how NATO wanted to arm the “Eastern Frontier” to protect it from a “threat from Russia.”

According to the Russian president, Vladimir Putin:

Russia has not placed missiles on the border of US in Canada or Mexico.

US has come to our borders and placed missiles on our borders. They are already in front of our home. Is this some kind of excessive demand, to not put any more offensive systems (attack weapons) in front of our house?

How would Americans react if we placed missiles on the US – Canada border, or on the US – Mexico border? To whom did California belong? And Texas? Have you forgotten? Today, everything is calm. No one remembers it. “not an inch to the east” they told us in the ’90s. So what happened? They lied and they blatantly cheated us.

2013-14: The Revolution of Dignity 

Until the 2000s, Ukraine depended on Russia economically with the latter being Ukraine’s biggest trade partner. However, the government started to try and become a part of the European Union (EU) around the 2000s. Russia was not pleased with the developments and didn’t want Ukraine to sign an agreement with the EU. President Victor Yanukovych complied with Russian demands and refused to sign the agreement in 2013. It was also believed that the president was a supporter of the Russians. The people of Ukraine refused to identify themselves as Russian while the President didn’t contradict Russia’s claims that Ukraine was still a part of it. This resulted in major protests starting throughout the country against the government and the President was ousted in February 2014.

2014: Annexing Crimea

In 2014, Russian soldiers, without their uniform, entered Crimea and took control. Crimea is an important peninsula (marked in the image below in yellow).

After the Russian movement, a referendum was held in Crimea on 16th March 2014. Over 97% of Crimean residents voted for joining Russia and leaving Ukraine. On March 21, 2014, the Russian President signed the papers that officially made Crimea a part of Russia.

The referendum was rejected by some parties, who said that it was invalid because of the huge number of Russians who were in Crimea at the time of the referendum. It also led to sanctions against Russia by western countries.

2014- 2022: The issue of Luhansk and Donetsk

In the image above, 2 regions are marked in orange. These regions have some more trouble. Some parts of these regions have been occupied by rebels who do not want to belong to Ukraine.

In 2014, they proclaimed these parts to be independent people’s republics.

Russia has never identified or recognised the political independence of these regions. However, it has handed out over 7,00,000 passports to people living in these regions.

Russia and Ukraine reached a treaty in 2015 (Treaty of Minsk), under which these regions were to have some level of autonomy in their rule.

2022: The current Russia-Ukraine conflict 

The current Russia-Ukraine, and by extension US and Germany, conflict has been going on for some months now. There have been various reasons cited for the conflict, the primary being Ukraine’s wish to join NATO. Russia didn’t wish for Ukraine’s proposal to be accepted and cited security reasons for the same. It then deployed troops near the Russia-Ukraine and Crimea borders. Diplomatic talks between US and Russia took place with US threatening Russia with sanctions, while talks amongst French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin resulting in the withdrawal of troops from the borders. 

While there were chances of a war:

1. 3000 US troops had been deployed to Romania from Germany and Fort Bragg.
2. Denmark and Belgium had sent F-15 and F-16 fighter jets to the Baltics in January. 
3. Britain had offered jets, warships and military specialists to aid Ukraine in the future. 
4. NATO member countries hadn’t deployed any defense troops inside Ukraine as of yet. However, they were willing to defend Ukraine, regardless of it not being a part of NATO yet. 
5. Talks were hosted amongst US and Russia, France and Russia, Germany and Russia, Germany and US, and Ukraine and Russia. 

The NordStream 2 Angle 

The primary reason for conflict was originally Ukraine’s proposal to join NATO, however, the gas pipeline newly constructed between Germany and Russia, NordStream 2, seems to play a more important role. The gas pipeline’s construction was hampered numerous times with the US implementing sanctions on the companies working on it, however, it is fully functional now and awaiting the go-ahead from Germany. 

Once this is provided, gas deliveries from Russia to Germany will begin, with the German population having a reliable and constant source of inexpensive energy and Russian revenues boosting. 

The US is not pleased with this new development as they don’t want Germany to become further dependent on Russian gas. Trade between the two countries will bring Russia and Germany closer and the US feels threatened by the future this alliance presents. It believes that in the future, if Germany and Russia are allies and trading partners, there will be no requirement of US’ military bases, and US-made weapons and missile systems. The US also feels that there will be no further need for NATO as European countries will no longer feel threatened by Russia.

Currently, all transactions involving petrol and gas are conducted in US dollars owing to a pact between Saudi Arabia and the US. However, as Germany will become increasingly dependent on Russia, the countries will conduct transactions in Russian and German currency,  resulting in a decline in the use, and by consequence the value, of the US dollar. 

Ukraine and Poland also supported the US’ stance regarding the construction of NordStream 2. Gas pipelines from Russia currently pass through these two countries and Russia has to pay huge amounts of tax to these countries owing to the same. However, this pipeline sidelines both these countries, resulting in a major economic loss for them whenever the pipeline becomes functional. 

Talks between American President Joe Biden and Germany’s Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, were held this week as well as talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the German Chancellor. The American President claimed that if Russia invaded Europe, NordStream 2 would not be launched. However, the German Chancellor has not officially verified this.

Russia also claimed to have withdrawn its troops from the Crimea border, while Ukraine has formally withdrawn it’s proposal of joining NATO. 

What is NATO?

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was formed by the US with the European Nations in 1949 after World War II. The European Nations needed money to rebuild themselves while the US needed power to ensure peace. The USSR refused to be a part of NATO or allow any of its satellite countries in Europe to join NATO for economic aid. Ukraine used to be a part of the USSR, and, therefore, isn’t a part of NATO as yet. 

Other Reasons for the conflict

Aside from the major two reasons stated above, some other reasons also accumulated in bringing things to a head. 

1. Russian President Vladimir Putin had tried to have Ukraine join the Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC) under which numerous ex-Soviet nations have united. The second most important member- after Russia- was supposed to be Ukraine-with a population of 43 million and powerful agriculture and industry- until Ukraine refused to join, preferring to join NATO instead. Russia needed Ukraine’s population and industries to join the EAEC as a population total of 250 million is needed to form a self-sufficient community. 

• Ukraine had been in economic recession for years after it broke ties with Russia and decided to support the US-led NATO as Russia had been its main economic partner. However, Ukraine’s economy has started to stabilize and increase owing to the world prices of grain and steel- Ukraine’s main export items- increasing. Having Ukraine in alliance with Russia would give a boost to Russia’s economy.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin’s popularity with the Russian public has been on the decrease because of anti-vaxxers and economic problems-owing to the pandemic- and he needed to divert the public’s attention to other matters. The President claimed that Ukraine has not upheld their side of the 2015 Minsk peace deal. The deal was designed to end the conflict between Russia-and it’s supporter countries- and Ukraine.

What does Russia want?

Russia sought assurance that NATO forces would be withdrawn from countries who joined the Treaty after 1997. It also wished for Ukraine to not be a part of NATO.

What does Ukraine want?

Ukraine wanted to end this conflict in peace, and without war, looking at the numerous lives already lost owing to the minor conflicts at the borders and Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Ministers had declared that they are willing to have talks with Russia in any third-country which doesn’t depend on either country in any manner. Ukraine has formally withdrawn its proposal to join NATO now. 

India’s Stance

1. On January 31, 2022, India, along with Gabon and Kenya, abstained from voting when the United Nations Security voted on taking up the Ukraine Issue. 

• India cannot afford to lose the support of either Russia or the US. This is because Russia makes up about half of India’s defense imports. However, the US could impose The Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act on India if India openly sided with Russia. This would limit India financially. Moreover, China has become India’s biggest threat and India needs the support of Russia and the US to counter China. China is the US’ enemy as well, providing a defense option to India, while Russia is China’s ally, thereby bringing leverage over China to India. 

• The Russia-India bilateral trade is worth $8 billion. If a war breaks out, the supply chains are going to be disrupted. India buys oil from Ukraine, and the supply of oil will decrease. Secondly, Russia supplies 20% of natural gas to the world, and this supply will also lessen if a war breaks out. 
• The Indian Prime Minister has spoken to the Russian President, Mr. Putin, over the phone and requested him to ensure that peace is restored as quickly as possible.
• Thousands of Indian students are stranded in Ukraine because after the first day’s fighting, all flights have been stopped over the region.

International Response

The US president, Mr. Joe Biden, has said that there is no question of sending US troops to Ukraine. Ukraine has requested military help from European countries and US.

So far, the UK has imposed financial sanctions on Russia, but not sent troops.

We do not have reports of any foreign troops reaching or working from Ukraine. The US, India, and UK have already taken back their residents from Ukraine all through February, though quite a few foreigners are still reported to be in the country. This includes Indian students.

This is an ongoing situation.

Maps created using mapschart.net

Sanctions: restricting a country politically, financially or militarily.

Updates

24 Feb (Thursday)

• Russian forces invade Ukraine from land, air and sea in the biggest attack by one country on another since World War II focused mainly on Donbass.  Russian President Vladimir Putin is claiming that people were being unfairly treated under the current government for over 8 years and Russian troops have invaded to liberate them. 
• Minutes after the invasion, the Ukrainian envoy to India urged the Ministry of External Affairs to initiate talks amongst Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
• On the same day, France publicly declared its support for Ukraine and warned Russia to expect harsh sanctions hitting its military, economy and energy sector from France. 
• Britain also warned Russia to expect harsh economic sanctions from the UK. 
• Imran Khan visited and talked with Putin on the day of the invasion after which the US Federal Reserve Board imposed a penalty on Pakistan’s National Bank of $20.4 million claiming anti-money laundering violation as the reason. 

25 Feb (Friday)

• Russia indicated that they were willing to send a delegation to Minsk, Belarus for talks with the delegation members’ Ukrainian counterparts to bring about peace. 
• On the same day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy demanded for harsh sanctions to be imposed on Russia from all European Nations and the US. 

26 Feb (Saturday)

• An emergency NATO meeting was held during which the US and European Nations made plans to impose extremely harsh financial penalties on Russia. However, they have decided to exclude Natural Gas exports and Russian Oil from the penalties considering the vast number of European Nations who are dependent on Russia for one or both of these resources. 
• It has been planned that more than $600 billion in Kremlin reserves are to be targeted. This will hinder Russia’s ability to support the ruble currency, thereby reducing it’s value. This will lead to inflation in Russia, resulting in Russian citizens protesting and Russian President Vladimir  Putin facing political unrest in his country. 
• Partial Russian banks are to be banned from SWIFT as well, though the specifics of which ones haven’t been decided yet. Germany was initially unwilling to this however has agreed to the condition now. Russia plays a big role in the world’s economy and cutting off all its banks would reduce the world economic flow. However, even a partial ban would result in a massive reduction in import and exports transactions for Russia.
• US and Albania presented a draft resolution in the United Nations Security Council, deploring the Russian invasion and demanding Russian forces to leave Ukraine. However, Russia, being one of the five permanent members of the UNSC, vetoed the resolution. China, India and the United Arab Emirates abstained from voting on the same. 
• External Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has launched a mission, Operation Ganga, to evacuate all Indians from Ukraine through Romania. Indians are being sent to Romania from where Air India flights are bringing them to India. The first evacuation was completed when an Air India flight carrying 219 Indians landed in Mumbai from Ukraine. 

However, a medical MBBS student from Haryana, Neha, is refusing to be evacuated from Ukraine. She wishes to stay back and look after her landlord’s wife and children whilst the landlord is on the frontlines defending his country. 

27 Feb (Sunday)

• Germany is sending 1000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger missiles to Ukraine. This is a marked breakage of the policy in Germany following which they had decided to not provide military aid in the form of arms to any countries involved in an intercountry conflict. 
• Ukraine has refused to meet Russia in Belarus considering the 2020 protests that took place after the falsified Presidential Elections. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko needs Russia’s support to stay in office and Ukraine doesn’t consider Belarus to be neutral. Further, the 2015 Minsk Peace Deal signed between Russia and Ukraine in Belarus had been broken the moment Russia invaded Ukraine and it is no longer believed that Russia will hold true and follow the deals made in Belarus. 

28 Feb (Monday)

• A procedural motion was presented in the UNSC to call for a special emergency meeting of the United Nations General Assembly regarding the ongoing war. The resolution was passed with 11 votes in favour,  Russia voting against, and India, China, and UAE abstaining from voting. The meeting will be held as soon as possible. 
• Today morning, Vladimir Putin put his nuclear deterrence force on high alert. 
• The Ukrainian President agreed to talks without preconditions at the Ukrainian-Belarus border, near the Pripyat River.
• The Ukrainian President also held talks with the UK Prime Minister and the President of Poland earlier today. 
• India plans to send Union Ministers Hardeep Singh Puri  to  Hungary, Jyotiraditya Scindia to Romania and Moldova, Kiren Rijiju to Slovakia, and Retired General VK Singh to Poland to supervise the evacuation of Indians from Ukraine as many are stuck at the Romania-Poland border. At the same time, Ukrainian citizens around the world wish to be sent to Ukraine or countries near Ukraine so as to cross the border and be with their families. 
• Private company SpiceJet has also agreed to start evacuation flights and the first trip is scheduled for Budapest, Hungary. Meanwhile, the fifth Air India evacuation flight landed in Delhi today with 249 Indians. A total of 1156 Indians have been evacuated in all five flights so far. 
• The weekend curfew was also lifted in Ukraine, with the government advising people to move towards Western Ukraine. 
• Russia’s Central Bank raised its key rate from 9.5% to 20% to increase the value of the ruble after its plummet during early morning trades. The ruble collapsed compared to the dollar and the euro in the Moscow Stock Exchange market. The rate is now 100.96 ruble to a dollar while it was 83.5 ruble a dollar till last week. This is a direct consequence of the numerous sanctions issued on Russia. 
• Latvia’s government passed a law in parliament allowing its citizens to fight for Ukraine while they’re in the country if they wish to. 
• Russian forces took over Berdyansk and Enerhodar in South east Ukraine and the area around the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant in the morning. 
• Australia has agreed to provide Ukraine with military support while issuing sanctions on Russian personnel, the main being Russian President Vladimir Putin.
• Saudi Arabia has declared that it will remain committed to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) of which Russia is a member. 
• In a referendum held yesterday, Belarus has allowed Russia to use Belarus territory for Russian nuclear weapon attacks on Ukraine.
• Ukraine and Russia have agreed to meet at a place on the border of Belarus to discuss the end of the war. The meeting will happen on Monday at the Pripyat river on the border. (Image Credit: Screenshot from Google maps)

01 March (Tuesday) 

• FIFA and UEFA ban Russia.
• Disney, Warner Bros, and Sony have paused film releases in Russia indefinitely. Netflix has refused to comply with Russia’s new set of rules. 
• Harley Davidson has suspended all operations in Russia. 
• British oil and gas company Shell, is pulling out of Russia and is exiting its joint ventures with Gazprom.
• UK ports have banned Russian vessels from docking there. 
• Russia has placed restrictions over flights from 32 countries that can fly over Russian airspace. 
• Japan is freezing assets of influential Russians and financial institutions. 
• US, UK, EU, and Canada imposed sanctions on Russia’s Central Bank. 
• World Taekwondo has stripped Russian President Vladimir Putin of his black. 
• Taiwan has also banned Russian banks and any association with them on SWIFT. It has also sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

• Australia has also promised to send missiles as well as a $50 million package of aid to Ukraine.
• An emergency UNGA meeting is held.
• The US warns Belarus to stop supporting Russia after Belarus declares it is no longer a non-nuclear state. 
• Members of the EU have assured Ukraine of further sanctions on Russia and more military support.
• Elon Musk has provided Starlink terminals to Ukraine, on request, owing to disrupted internet signals in the country.
• Finland has shipped 25000 assault rifles, 150000 bullets, 1500 anti-tank weapons, and 70000 packages of food to Ukraine.
• Kazakhstan has offered to host peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

• The first round of talks between Ukraine and Russia went on for 5 hours. There is expectation of another round so that both countries reach a common point regarding the war, Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Ukraine. Russia is currently demanding sovereignty over Ukraine and Crimea. 
• Ukraine has accused Russia of breaking international humanitarian laws by shelling and bombing hospitals, schools, etc. 

• Protests are taking place against the war in Russia, Berlin, Baghdad, Quito, etc. There are also calls for civil disobedience in Russia.
• Over 50,000 Ukrainian civilians have fled to neighboring countries Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia. 
• The Indian Air Force has been roped in to help in the evacuation of Indians.
• Over 1300 Indians have been evacuated. 4 ministers have been sent to 4 neighbouring countries to ensure that Indians can be brought back safely. Air India, Spicejet, and Indigo are running the evacuation flights.
• The operation to bring Indians back from Ukraine is called Operation Ganga. All other international flights from and to India have been stopped for now.

2 March (Wednesday)

• Apple paused sales in Russia 
• Ford suspended its joint Russian ventures 
• Joe Biden banned on Russian aircraft flying over US’ airspace 
• US aeroplane manufacturer Boeing suspends maintenance and technical support for Russian airlines
• Dane’s Maersk, Switzerland’s MSC and France’s CMA CGM shipping lines suspended delivery of Russian deliveries and bookings
• VISA and Mastercard blocked numerous Russian Financial Institutions 
• US’ oil company ExxonMobil began withdrawal from the projects it had undertaken from Russia 
• Italy’s oil company Eni withdrew from the Blue Stream gas pipeline connecting Russia and Turkey in which it had a 50% stake 
• United Airlines suspended flying over Russia’s airspace 
• World Bank prepared to send $3 billion aid package to Ukraine
• Moldova opened its borders to Indians fleeing from Ukraine 
• Ukraine launched an emergency helpline for citizens 
• Joe Biden held his first US’ State of the Union Address during this tenure and announced that US’ troops would help in humanitarian and not military assistance in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian President is urging the EU to accept its official application to join it
• The UNGA meeting’s draft text demanded Russia to withdraw its troops. The draft was put to vote today

What is OPEC?

The  Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is an entity of 13 member countries. It’s purpose is to regulate the supply of oil in the world and set the price of oil on the world market to ensure it is fair and standardised throughout the world.

What is SWIFT?

The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication is the world’s most secure payments network used by over 200 countries for secure banking amongst countries. The countries with the most number of banks using it are the USA and Russia, with over 300 Russian banks using it. SWIFT is witness to trillions of dollars worth transactions each year and is a secure messaging system as well which is used to establish relations amongst international banks frequently. It is also the least expensive method which allows import and export money transactions the fastest. 

What is the Minsk Agreement 2015?

The second agreement signed between Russia, Ukraine, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the leaders of separatist-held regions Donetsk and Luhansk, Minsk II was a 13-point deal following which the protests taking place against the Ukrainian government in Luhansk and Donetsk were to be stopped. These two areas were demanding independence from Ukraine and were supported by Russia. During the signing of the treaty, representatives of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine came together to show a declaration of support. 

By the treaty, there would be a ceasefire from the areas as well as Russia and Ukraine, all heavy weapons would be withdrawn from the areas of conflict, the OSCE would monitor the two regions, amnesty or pardon would be provided to fighters, there would be an exchange of hostages and prisoners, humanitarian assistance would be provided regardless of any animosity, there would be elections in Luhansk and Donetsk, and there would be a withdrawal of all foreign military and equipment from the areas of conflict.

However, the treaty was never completed because Russia continuously claimed that it was not a participant in the conflict and so is not bound by the terms of the deal.